Search Ain't Done Yet

We aren't regular readers of TechCrunch.  It's undoubtedly a nice business, but we view it as a glorified PR news wire for Silicon Valley.  It's heavy on description (which often feels scripted by  a PR firm) and rarely has quality analysis.  

A recent article on the growth in the market for advertising in online video is a good example.  Clearly, that sector is growing.  But to prove it, the article cites conversations with CEO's of large online video advertising networks and a recent eMarketer industry report (likely funded by the ad networks).  Not exactly unbiased sources.

The article draws heavily on a forecast from the eMarketer report that projects online video advertising in the US will grow from 1.5b in revenue this year to 5.5b in 2014.  Of course, we take long-term industry forecasts with a grain of salt.  That said, we think the TechCrunch article ignores the most interesting part of the eMarketer report--it also forecasts that search will grow from 12.4b in advertising revenue in the US this year to 16.8b in 2004.  That's 4.4b in additional revenue--more growth than in video!  

Search is old news.  It's not en vogue like Facebook or Twitter.  But it's still a monster market.  Even small growth in a monster market means huge growth in absolute dollars.